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Daily Market Report
16 Jul 2020


The EUR/USD pair hit 1.1451, the highest since last March, when the pair reached 1.1496, as optimism ruled throughout most of this Wednesday. The upbeat mood was triggered by hopes on the Moderna vaccine, as the biotech firm said it had been found it induces immune responses in all of the volunteers who got it in a phase one study. After opening with substantial gains, US equities retreated, helping the dollar to recover some ground ahead of the close. Meanwhile, the number of global coronavirus cases continues to rise, spurring concerns about economic progress.

The EU didn’t release macroeconomic data, but the US published the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for July, which improved from -0.2 to 17.2. The country also released the June import Price Index and the Export Price Index for the same month, both better than anticipated. Also, June Industrial Production improved to 5.4% in the month, beating the market’s expectations, while Capacity Utilization surged to 68.6%.

This Thursday, the ECB is having a monetary policy meeting, widely expected to maintain the status quo. Still, it is a first-tier event that can trigger action around the shared currency. As for the US, the country will publish June Retail Sales, seen up by a modest 3.6% after surging by 11% in the previous month.

The EUR/USD pair is trading above 1.1400, maintaining its bullish stance. The 4-hour chart shows that it keeps developing well above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA heading sharply north at around 1.1365. The larger moving averages also turned higher, below the shorter one. Technical indicators have eased from overbought readings, but hold well above their midlines, a sign of limited selling interest. A steeper advance is to be expected on a break above 1.1460, a strong static resistance area.

Support levels: 1.1380 1.1345 1.1300

Resistance levels: 1.1420 1.1460 1.1495  


The USD/JPY pair fell to 106.66, bouncing once again from the support area, yet finishing the day in the red just below the 107.00 mark. The decline was the result of the broad dollar’s weakness, falling despite risk-appetite took over financial markets, on hopes about progress in a coronavirus vaccine. The slide continued at the beginning of the American session, with the dollar trading inversely to Wall Street.

The Bank of Japan announced its latest decision on monetary policy, which had no impact on yen’s price. Policymakers maintained the man rate unchanged at -0.1%, and its 10-year JGB target around 0%, yet as expected, they downgraded forecasts. The economy is now seeing shrinking between 4.5% and 5.7% in the current fiscal year. Core inflation is expected to stay between -0.5% and -0.7% in the same period. Meanwhile, Tokyo raised its alert to the highest levels this Wednesday amid a spike in coronavirus contagions. The country won’t publish relevant data this Thursday.

The USD/JPY pair is at risk of extending its decline, according to intraday readings. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is comfortably consolidating below all of its moving averages, which continue to lack directional strength. The Momentum indicator heads south below its midline, while the RSI stabilized around 41 after flirting with oversold readings. A stepper decline, towards the 105.90 price zone seems likely on a break below the 106.60 support area.

Support levels: 106.60 106.20 105.90

Resistance levels: 107.30 107.75 108.10 


The GBP/USD pair surged to 1.2649, amid a combination of risk-appetite and encouraging UK data. According to the Office of National Statics, inflation picked up in June to 0.6% YoY, beating the expected 0.4%. Still below BOE’s 2% target, the uptick in inflation is surely a positive sign of an economic recovery. Also, the Producer Price Index in the mentioned month declined by 0.8% YoY, better than the -1.1% anticipated. The pair, however, gave up most of its intraday gains to settle with modest gains in the 1.2580 price zone, as retreating equities supported a dollar’s comeback.

This Thursday, the UK will publish its latest employment data. The ILO unemployment rate for the three months to May is seen at 4.2% from 3.9% previously, while the Claimant Count Change in June is foreseen at 250K.

The GBP/USD pair is technically neutral according to the 4-hour chart, unable to sustain gains beyond a flat 20 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lack directional strength around their midlines. Strong selling interest seems aligned around the 1.2650/60 price zone, while the 200 DMA stands around 1.2690. The bullish case will be firmer only if the pair manages to advance beyond this last.

Support levels: 1.2550 1.2505 1.2460

Resistance levels: 1.2660 1.2695 1.2740


Risk-appetite sent the AUD/USD pair to 0.7037, yet as it happens lately, the pair was unable to sustain gains above the 0.7000 threshold. The pair rallied despite July Westpac Consumer Confidence came in at -6.1%, falling from the previous 6.3%. Now trading just around the mentioned level, investors are waiting for June Australian employment data.

Expectations indicate that the country could have added 112.5K new jobs, after losing roughly 830K jobs in the previous two months, as a result of the ongoing pandemic. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 7.4% after jumping to 7.1% in the previous month and almost two-decade high. However, good news could be offset by the latest Melbourne lockdown, which means employment numbers will likely fall again in the upcoming months. Also, China will publish its Q2 GDP, foreseen at 9.6% from -9.8% in Q1. This last will also unveil June Retail Sales and Industrial Production, both seen recovering from negative levels.  

The AUD/USD pair is at the upper end of its latest range, but still far below the high set this year at 0.7063. The technical picture favors a bullish extension that could be triggered by data, although the pair needs to conquer the mentioned area to be able to extend its gains in the following sessions. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is comfortable well above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA heading modestly higher above the larger ones, as technical indicators consolidate above their midlines, reflecting absent selling interest.

Support levels: 0.6980 0.6940 0.6895

Resistance levels: 0.7025 0.7060 0.7100


Gold is keeping its decisive move-up as the USD index DXY keeps its decline. The index is testing 96.00 level while the current monetary policies support the yellow metal. Despite the bullish tone seen in Gold, also Wall Street is keeping its head-up with the expectations of strong bank earnings among other industries. Therefore, the incline seen in Gold is capped at the moment as the traders are still betting on a strong economic comeback despite the pandemic is far from over.

If Gold prices will continue to stay over 1.800$ decisively, next target might be followed at 1.825$ (2011 August close), 1.900$ and 1.922$ (all-time high). Below the 1.800$ level, the supports can be followed at 1.750$(December 2012 peak) and 1.738$ (April double top). 

Support Levels: 1.800$ 1.750$ 1.738$

Resistance Levels: 1.825$ 1.900$ 1.922$  



Silver is well defending the 19.00$ level supported by the declining USD and the increasing demand caused by the incline seen in industrial production mainly in China. The Gold to Silver ratio is now settled around 95.00 level while the pre-pandemic level was sub-90.00. Therefore, Silver has more room to grow in case of a faster normalisation in industrial production.

Above the 19.00$ level, next targets can be followed at 19.64$ (2019 high), 20.00$ and 21.00$ (2016 high). On the other hand, below the 19.00$ supports can be followed at 18.38$ (14.29$-19.64$ %23.60) and 17.60$ (14.29$-19.64$ %38.20).

Support Levels: 19.00$ 18.38$ 17.60$

Resistance Levels: 19.64$ 20.00$ 21.00$




WTI finally broke its heavily defended 40.00$ barrier on Wednesday and managed to settle a tick over 41.00$. The API data showed late Tuesday, the US crude stockpiles fell by 8.3 million barrels in the week to July 10, beating expectations for a decline of 2.1 million barrels, per Reuters. As the stockpiles declined more than expected, WTI was boosted before the OPEC+ meeting. OPEC and its allies will restore some oil supplies next month, but the impact will be "barely felt" as demand recovers from the coronavirus crisis, said Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister on Wednesday.   

If WTI manages to hold over 40.56$ (65.62$-0.00$ %61.80) level, the targets upside can be followed at 41.00$, 46.57$ (March decline start) and 50.00$ levels. Below the 40.00$, the supports can be followed at 39.00$ and 32.81$ (65.62$-0.00$ %50) levels.

Support Levels: 40.00$ 39.00$ 32.81$ 

Resistance Levels: 41.00$ 46.57$ 50.00$



Dow Jones tested 27.000 level on Wednesday supported by the positive developments regarding positive outputs for a potential Covid-19 vaccine. On the other hand, as the Q2 earnings season continues, Goldman Sachs printed a strong result which lifted the risk appetite. On the other hand, the truth remains the same as the pandemic in the US is far from over with incline in the number of new cases. The US Federal Reserve noted in its Beige Book that economic activity increased in almost all districts but remained well below where it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the light of the events, the USD index DXY is keeping its decline towards 96.00 level while precious metals picked up the pace.    

Over the 26.000 level, the resistance can be followed at 26.875 (29.568-18.158 %76.40), 27.583 (June 2020 high) and 28.000 levels. On the other hand, below the 26.000 level, targets downside can be followed at 25.210 (29.568-18.158 %61.80), 24.690 (2020 April-May resistance) and 23.863 (29.568-18.158 %50.00).

Support Levels: 26.000 25.210 24.690

Resistance Levels: 26.875 27.583 28.000 



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* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.

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Please remember that trading financial markets carry a high degree of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial stake. Leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

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